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Sometimes it’s easy to forget we’re a nation at war.  There is no rationing, we see no coffins, we do not live in fear.  Yet there are almost 200,000 American troops in harm’s way in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we’ve spent $800 billion on military activities in Iraq alone.

This tank being transported down Interstate 15 is a reminder of something we rarely see: the ongoing military activity to which our nation has made a huge financial commitment.

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Adam Vogel photo.

Our nation is facing a fiscal crisis that is only getting worse.  The over $14 trillion national debt has increased by more than 25% in just the last two years/.  The Congressional Budget Office says it is already nearly two-thirds the size of our national economy…  Year after year, decade after decade, Congress proves that it will not solve this crisis on its own.”

So says a joint letter to Congress by Senators Hatch (R-UT) and Cornyn (R-TX).  And the proposed amendment they attacked proves their point: “Congress… will not solve this crisis on its own.”

NationalJournalDailycom summarizes:

Under the proposal, expected to be unveiled the week of January 25, total spending cannot exceed total receipts; total spending for any fiscal year cannot exceed 20 percent of the gross domestic product of the previous calendar year; and a two-thirds vote would be needed in both chambers to pass legislation that increases taxes. A two-thirds vote would also be required to waive any of the other limits, although the limits may be waived if war is declared or an imminent threat is declared by a joint resolution of Congress.

The president must also submit a balanced budget under the bill.

In other words, no new income, and spending must be cut to meet current revenue.  Which sounds great – if you’re not a big fan of reality.

Here’s the problem: At present, revenue doesn’t even cover the four biggest items in the federal budget: Social Security, Defense, Medicare, and interest on the debt.  Everything else, from school lunches to highway maintenance to foreign aid to disaster relief (remember Katrina?) to farm subsidies to Congressional salaries, is spent on credit.  The federal government in 2009 spent an astounding $1.4 trillion (67%) more than it took in.

Blocking new revenue means that spending must be slashed by 40%.  That’s the equivalent of abolishing all national defense and slashing Social Security to zero, while leaving taxes (including social security taxes) at their present levels.  It’s absurd.  And it’s impossible, at least for all but the most ardent promoters of small government.

Bob at Polizeros has written extensively about California’s budget problems.  They need a supermajority to raise revenues, much like this amendment requires.  The result has been disastrous legislative gridlock – the Legislature has been unable to pass a budget, and the world’s eighth largest economy is on the verge of bankruptcy.

The Hatch-Cornyn Amendment is nothing but a political stunt.  If it did pass, it would reduce our Federal government to the same gridlock California now has.

The Senators’ letter quotes the Chairman of the joint Chiefs of Staff calling our national debt “the most significant threat to our national security.”  I don’t disagree.  But this Amendment would take a bad problem and make it worse.

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And Now: Inflation

AP reports that wholesale food and energy prices are rising, and seems surprised to find new danger of inflation despite the tepid economic “recovery.”  The stock market is up, commodities are rising, but hiring is flat and wages are down.  So how can there be inflation?

My macroeconomics professor used this mantra: “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”  The more money you pump into the economy, the less value each unit has.  If the money supply increases faster than the value of the economy, inflation is unavoidable.

The money supply has increased by 2/3 over the past ten years.  Despite the downturn in the economy, or perhaps because of it, M-1 has increased 66% and M-2 has increased 77%.  Over the same period, GDP increased only 42%.  The money supply grew much faster than the economy.  So why are we surprised that our dollar doesn’t go as far as it used to?

Incidentally, the price of goat feed has already risen 13% this month.  Brace yourselves!  Whether or not you got a raise last year, things are going to cost more.

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One of my businesses is raising goats and making cheese.  Like every other business, at year-end we have to figure out whether we owe taxes.  For a manufacturing business like ours, that’s not always easy.

During the course of a business year, we paid for cow milk,goat feed, cheese making supplies, and so forth.But we don’t get to deduct the full amount of pour purchases, because some of the cheese we made has not yet been sold.  It remains in inventory.    We are required to count the cheese inventory at year-end, which we did.  We had 1,688 pounds of cheese on hand when we counted.

How much is that cheese worth?  Well, last year it cost us more to produce the cheese than its market value, so we chose a method of inventory called “lower of cost or market.”  That means if the cheese is worth less than it cost, we use the market value; if it cost less than it is worth, we use cost.  So we have to figure out how much the cheese would be valued using each method, and use the lower.

To figure out the market value of the cheese, we tally up the total sales for the year and divide it by the number of pounds sold.  To figure the cost of the cheese, we tally up the costs of the purchases we made to make the cheese and divide that by the total amount produced for the year.  That is the total number sold, plus the total number in inventory, less the total number we had in inventory last year (because that cheese was produced in a prior year, not the year in question).

It turns out that we will be valuing our cheese at cost this year.

We need that number because the deductible amount of the purchases, called Cost of Goods Sold or COGS, is calculated by taking the beginning inventory, adding the purchases, and subtracting the ending inventory.

Are you with me so far?

But here’s where it gets really fun: the federal government has determined that a manufacturing industry must determine how much other expense went into the production of our cheese.  This is Section 263A of the tax code, so these expenses are typically referred to as 263A expenses.  In our case, they include labor, supplies, vehicle expense, security (the livestock guardian dog), equipment rental, repairs, and veterinary expenses.  We add all those up to get the “Total Attributable Expenses.”

Now we find the attribution rate, which is the number of pounds of cheese in the ending inventory, divided by the total number of pounds of cheese produced, rounded to 5 decimal places.  Yes, the tax code says how many decimal places to use.

Take the total attributable expense and multiply it by the attribution rate to get the amount of expense that needs to be capitalized– in other words, expense that isn’t deductible in the current year.

But we’re not done yet: last year we had 263A expense that had to be capitalized.  This year, we take that amount as an expense, while removing the current year number from expense.

So our COGS calculation looks something like this:

Beginning Inventory (last year’s ending inventory)

Add: Last Year’s 263A Expense

Add: Purchases

Subtract: Ending Inventory

Subtract: Current Year 263A Expense

————————————————–

Equals: Cost of Goods Sold

Is it simple?  Not at all.  But the actual tax code, as written by Congress, is worse:

In general
        In the case of any property to which this section applies, any
      costs described in paragraph (2) -
          (A) in the case of property which is inventory in the hands
        of the taxpayer, shall be included in inventory costs, and
          (B) in the case of any other property, shall be capitalized.
      (2) Allocable costs
        The costs described in this paragraph with respect to any
      property are -
          (A) the direct costs of such property, and
          (B) such property's proper share of those indirect costs
        (including taxes) part or all of which are allocable to such
        property.
      Any cost which (but for this subsection) could not be taken into
      account in computing taxable income for any taxable year shall
      not be treated as a cost described in this paragraph.

Excuse me?

It goes on like that for about 3 pages.  Then there are pages more of regulations issued by the Treasury Department on how this rule should be applied.

One thing is for sure: tax code like this ensures that accountants, auditors, and tax attorneys stay gainfully employed– at the expense of the businesses that have to hire them to get these calculations right, and then justify their calculations to the IRS.

My other business is preparing tax returns.  The fact that I make my living from the complexity of government regulation is an embarrassment. I would much rather see a simpler tax code and find another line of work!

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Dear Senator Hatch,

Thank you for your newsletter. I would like to point out that the GOP-proposed spending cuts are barely a rounding error in the bloated federal budget.

The top four line items in the budget are Social Security, defense, Medicare, and interest on the national debt. Revenues from taxes and other sources don’t even cover these four items. That means everything else in the budget, from school lunches and highway maintenance to oil subsidies and foreign aid, is spent on credit. In 2009, the federal government spent an astounding 67% more than it took in– with no realistic expectation that it will ever be paid back.

If I ran my business like that, they would send me to prison for fraud, and rightly so.

Unless the GOP has serious cost-cutting proposals they have not yet disclosed– about $1.4 trillion in cuts would be needed to balance the budget– it is imperative that Congress get serious about raising revenues. Otherwise, both parties are complicit in bankrupting this great nation.

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(Laughing Squid photo.)

The New York Times reports that the Feds have threatened to “aggressively enforce” laws prohibiting marijuana if the California ballot initiative to legalize pot passes.  This perhaps represents the obvious conflict: Logic suggests that, as with alcohol prohibition, pot prohibition is both misguided and counterproductive.  As one of my friends said recently, “Why would you want to smoke it if it wasn’t illegal?”  Meanwhile, the billion-dollar drug enforcement industry and the trillion-dollar drug smuggling industry both want pot to be illegal.  And they have the money and power to try to keep it that way.  Columbia and Mexico are awash in drug money, and so are U.S. banks.  Do we really believe that none of that money makes its way to our politicians?

It would be a mistake, however, to see the fed response only in that light.  Dozens of states, mostly on the right, have declared that they want an end to the overly-intrusive central government’s meddling in their affairs.  Utah and Idaho have done it by passing gun laws that permit internal sales without federal regulation.  Arizona has passed an immigration law that steps on the fed’s turf.  Twenty states have sued the fed over Obamacare. Twenty-two have passed resolutions opposing REAL-ID.

The Obama administration has consistently opposed these efforts and insisted that the fed has the right to regulate– well, just about anything.  Up until now, this might be seen as part of the Left-Right divide.  But with their declaration on California’s pot proposal, the fed has made clear this is not about party politics.  The fed has amassed enormous power.  The states want some of it back– and the fed is not willingly going to let that power go.

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stress reliever by horizontal.integration.
(Horizontal.Integration photo.)

On Monday, the Supreme Court threw out a handgun ban in Chicago, arguing that an outright ban on handguns infringed on the rights of the City’s citizens.  In its decision, the Court recognized that the Second Amendment right to bear arms is one of the fundamental rights protected by the 14th Amendment, which prevents states from infringing on citizens’ rights.

Interestingly, both gun rights proponents and gun control opponents claimed victory.  The Wall Street Journal noted that pro-gun-rights attorneys intended to continue their challenges to gun control laws, while The Hill quoted a Brady Center representative as saying, “We are reassured that the court has rejected, once again, the gun-lobby argument that its ‘any gun, for anybody, anywhere’ agenda is protected by the Constitution.”

What did the Court’s decision actually tell us?  Not much.  If anything, they seem to have taken a middle path: gun rights are protected from absolute ban, but reasonable regulation is permitted.  And they have done so with such vagueness as to ensure that litigation will continue.

A middle path is to be welcomed in a polarized political environment in which both sides demand that everyone adopt one extreme or the other.  Yet it’s unfortunate that the Court failed to give more guidance.  In the absence of authority, this is a question about which we are certain to argue for many years.

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Working the sheep by .Larry Page.

(Larry Page photo.  Many sheepherders in Utah are from south of the border.)

“Legislators will be answering questions like, ‘What kind of society do we want to live in, and what kind of people are we? Are we welcoming people, or are we exclusionary people?’?If we’re exclusionary people, go ahead and adopt the Arizona policy and start rounding them up and kicking them out, repeal the driving privilege card, repeal in-state tuition, get punitive — and do it with a smile on your face.  Or if we’re a different kind of people, a welcoming people, then we’ll see these undocumented immigrants as we see ourselves.” –Paul Mero, president of the Sutherland Institute.

As one Utah legislator prepares to introduce the “Arizona approach” to illegal immigration, Deseret News reports that a conservative think tank wants to offer an alternative: “work privilege cards.”

Utah already offers “driving privilege cards” to illegal immigrants, which allow them to drive if they understand the rules and pass a test.  (Federal law now requires states to issue drivers licenses only to people with valid social security numbers.  The driving privilege card is not legal as identification, but it does permit holders to drive without getting arrested for unlicensed driving.)  This acknowledges that illegals are not going anywhere, and it’s better to regulate them than to pretend they don’t exist.  If a person who does not have a social security card can provide proof of Utah residency, take a class and pass a test, they can get permission to drive in the state.

The “work privilege card” would take a similar approach: allowing illegal workers to not live in constant fear of every police officer.  DN quotes Mero as saying,

“If (illegal immigrants) see a crime in the house next door to them, under the Sutherland way, I think these folks would pick up the phone and call the cops and help out and keep their community safe.  Under the Arizona way, I don’t think they pick up the phone.”

Which only makes sense: if illegals are treated as criminals, they’re not going to act as law-abiding citizens.

Even those who support expelling illegals don’t necessarily believe the AZ approach will do the job.  A representative of the Utah Minutemen Project said, in another article on tougher job screening in Utah,

“I think it will have a minimal effect on the number of illegal aliens expelled… more illegal aliens will be forced underground, and will attempt to steal real IDs rather than just make up a (Social Security) number for employment.”

Mero suggests that “work privilege cards” would help reduce identity theft by reducing the need for it.  But that may be too unpalatable for some conservatives.

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Facsimile tomb painting by peterjr1961.

(Peterjr1961 photo.)

“Throughout Egyptian history, the king is seen to be a force keeping disorder at bay through his relationship with the gods and his strength and power.”  (Cheryl Perry, Egypt: Land & Lives of the Pharaohs Revealed, p48)

That’s seemingly the great fear of all societies: disorder.  The implied threat of bucking a string central government is that chaos would reign.  And so it has been for thousands of years.  As the Israelites told the prophet Samuel in the face of the threat of the Philistines:

“We are determined to have a king over us, so that we also may be like other nations, and that our king may govern us and go out before us and fight our battles.”  (1 Samuel 8:19-20)

The United States is no different.  We fear chaos and disorder, enemies from within and without, far more than we fear giving all our liberty to a strong central government.

The Israelites endured the abuses of Saul David, and Solomon before they rebelled (1 Kings 12), seceding from the House of Judah.  But, still blinded by fear of chaos, they immediately chose a new king to reign over them, and the two kings warred with each other throughout their lifetimes. (1 Kings 14:30)

When Israel first asked Samuel for a king, Samuel went to the Lord, who observed,

“[T]hey have rejected me from being king over them.”

Choosing a strong central government is an act contrary to faith, for if we trust in God, why would we need a king, pharaoh, or powerful president to keep us safe?

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