www.AsymptoticLife.com

Ivanpah Dry Lake: Not so dry

DJ — 2010-02-07T19:46:00Z

Just before the I-15 crosses from California into Nevada, it passes Ivanpah Dry Lake, a large, flat lakebed popular for landsailing and other sports.

On my last trip through, it wasn't so dry. Here, the lights of Primm, Nevada are reflected in the lake, which filled with water after heavy rains.

Pawn Your Stuff with "The White Guy"

DJ — 2010-02-06T20:01:00Z

This sign, prominently displayed at a Mexican restuarant in St. George, Utah, invites Spanish-speaking patrons to pawn their stuff with El Gringo-- literally, "the white guy." Could it suggest exploitation any more strongly?

Sustainable Dairying, India Style

DJ — 2010-02-05T20:16:00Z

(Meanest Indian image. Note the dung patties drying on the wall.)

By necessity, India wastes very little. The Hindu religion considers the cow to be holy because it gives life (in the form of milk) without taking life, but that doesn't mean they're overrun with cows. One source says India has 200 million cows, or 0.18 per person. This compares with 0.32 cattle per capita in the U.S.

Because of religious restrictions, cattle in India are raised primarily for dairy, a far more efficient use of cows than meat. But because everything is so scarce in India, dairy production doesn't look much like it does here. Most often, a family keeps a cow, milks it daily, and perhaps sells some of that milk (or the cheese made from it) to their neighbors. This creates certain environmental benefits compared with industrial dairying.

Dairy cows in the U.S. are typically kept in confined areas, and fed hay and grain that is grown on dedicated cropland and trucked in from some distance. Feed production and trucking both have an environmental cost. Cows in India, in contrast, wander the streets and eat garbage. Thus, India uses virtually no land area for feed production-- cows eat waste food and vegetable matter that would otherwise decompose in garbage heaps, creating methane. Yes, it creates methane in a cow's stomach, too-- but they get milk as a byproduct instead of just trash.

Manure in the U.S. is typically slurried by large dairy operations, where it generates methane. Smaller dairies are more likely to compost, which creates CO2 instead, a better environmental choice. But in India, manure is made into cakes, typically dried is the sun, and sold as fuel. Yes, it creates CO2 when burned-- but it offsets wood or fossil fuel that would otherwise be used for heat and cooking.

Globalization is pressuring India to grow commercial livestock feed (much of which it exports to other livestock producing nations), and in some areas local production is giving way to industrialization, along with its inherent environmental costs. But the traditional Indian approach to dairying is about as environmentally friendly as it is possible to get. And it's low tech.

Utah Joins State Effort to Limit Fed

DJ — 2010-02-04T18:30:00Z

(Thorne Enterprises photo.)

This week, the Utah Senate passed SB11, the Utah State-Made Firearms Protection Act, which exempts Utah firearm manufacturers (including Browning, one of the country's largest) from federal firearms statutes for firearms manufactured for sale in Utah. The Bill now proceeds to the House. Along similar lines, SB67 requires the Governor's approval before any federal health insurance legislation can be implemented in Utah. It, too, cleared the state Senate and heads for the House.

While gun rights proponents are understandably ecstatic, SB11 closely follows a similar Montana statute passed last year, whose author says its purpose is to challenge how the federal government views states' rights-- not specifically gun rights. Firearms regulations are one logical place to start, since much federal gun regulation relies on the view that if something crosses state lines, it becomes federal purview. This bill states that the federal rules don't apply for firearms that don't cross state lines.

According to Deseret News, the bill's author, Sen. Margaret Dayton (R-Orem), commented,

"There are … 13 bills that I know of in our Legislature that address our state's sovereign right to make decisions in our own state, … and to say to the federal government, 'What part of shall not infringe do they not understand?' "

The phrase "shall not infringe" alludes to the 10th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, the last of the Bill of Rights, which states,

"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."

Jumping in with Montana and Utah is Wyoming, where the Governor, a Democrat, called for a Constitutional Amendment to limit federal interference in state affairs. His press release said in part,

"We must do what we can to stop this avalanche of federal intrusion.”

According to Wiki, other states, too, have moved to reassert their sovereignty. Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Tennessee all passed resolutions affirming their sovereignty last year, with 13 more considering it so far this year. Others, including California, Hawaii, Maine, Nevada, Oregon, and Vermont, defied the fed on medical marijuana. In all, nearly half the states have so far challenged federal powers in one way or another.

Deseret News opposes Utah's poke at the fed, by the way, suggesting that as long as Utah accepts federal money, it ought to play by the fed's rules. This highlights the deep ambivalence in Utah culture toward federal authority, pitting the Utah tradition of respect for authority against the memory of the federal invasion.

I'm not sure I agree with DN, considering that fed money is actually our money. Regardless, the Montana law is already being challenged in Federal court, and Utah's is sure to follow as this showdown develops.

Inflation: The Biggest Tax

DJ — 2010-02-03T17:53:00Z

(Pupleslog image.)

I've been posting about our insane federal budget deficits for years now. So it's nice to see someone else notices them too-- apart from knee-jerk party affiliated accusations, that is. Says Deseret News today:

Hard as it may be to believe, it was only 18 months ago that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi accused President George W. Bush of having "mortgaged our future" because the federal budget deficit had reached $490 billion. That seems sort of quaint now."

The truth is, President Obama has continued his predecessor's fiscal policies, spending far more money than the government has (or can reasonably expect to collect). Naturally both parties accuse the other of making things worse, but both parties use the same approach. This is perhaps the most insidious fiscal policy because there is only one practical future response: inflation.

Here's an example: from 2000 to 2008, the national debt rose from $5.7 trillion to 10.0 trillion, a 75% increase. Over the same period, the money supply also increased: M2 went from $4.8 trillion to $7.9 trillion, an increase of 65%. In other words, as debt goes up, more dollars go into circulation, and that means (all things being equal) every dollar is worth less than it was before. According to the site Measuring Worth, based on current price GDP, a dollar in 2008 was worth only 69 cents of a 2000 dollar. Every dollar you had in 2000 lost 31 cents during W's presidency-- almost 1/3 of its value.

Yet Obama has embarked the same fiscal path. Deseret News comments:

Obama spoke eloquently last week about the need to become fiscally responsible. So far, we haven't seen any actions to back up those words. His plan to freeze budgets in all but national security, Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security was a joke.

If the government continues to inflate our currency at the rate it did in the Bush years, a dollar at the end of O's presidency will be worth only 48 cents compared to what it was worth in 2000. That's right: it will have lost more than half its value.

Just to stay even, you would need to make twice as much money as you did in 2000. How's that going for you so far?

I understand that there are a lot of people who think the government should do certain things, be it national health insurance or protecting our oil supply. But what we don't seem to realize is that we pay for these services, one way or another. We squawk about paying taxes, but do we care that we've lost 1/3 of our wealth in ten years-- and that the bill will get bigger before it gets smaller?

Did religion fuel the housing bubble?

Sue — 2010-01-31T19:42:00Z

I live in Southern California, a mecca of prosperity theology, whose central tenet goes something like this:

God is the 'Owner of All the Silver and Gold,' and with enough faith, any believer can access the inheritance. Money is not the dull stuff of hourly wages and bank-account statements, but a magical substance that comes as a gift from above. ... 'Instead of saying "I'm poor," say "I'm rich" ... The word of God will manifest itself in reality.'

Prosperity theology is an unsustainable belief system. At a personal level, I am starting down the path of profound disappointment if I believe that prayer changes God, or that the tangible world can be controlled by personal manipulation of the supernatural world. Because if I fail to fulfill my desires, then I am living my entire life in error - I am a bad person, unfavored and unloved by God.

At the level of a religious practice of millions, author Jackson Lears argues that prosperity theology generates a culture of recklessness:

In his book Something for Nothing, Jackson Lears describes two starkly different manifestations of the American dream, each intertwined with religious faith.

The traditional Protestant hero is a self-made man. He is disciplined and hardworking, and believes that his "success comes through careful cultivation of (implicitly Protestant) virtues in cooperation with a Providential plan."

The hero of the second American narrative is a kind of gambling man - a "speculative confidence man," Lears calls him, who prefers "risky ventures in real estate," and a more "fluid, mobile democracy."

The self-made man imagines a coherent universe where earthly rewards match merits. The confidence man lives in a culture of chance, with "grace as a kind of spiritual luck, a free gift from God." The Gilded Age launched the myth of the self-made man, as the Rockefellers and other powerful men in the pews connected their wealth to their own virtue. In these boom-and-crash years, the more reckless alter ego dominates.

Throughout California and other states strongly affected by the market collapse, prosperity theology fueled the housing bubble. Subprime lenders used church leaders to exploit prosperity theology's adherents:

Beth Jacobson is a star witness for the City of Baltimore's recent suit against Wells Fargo. Jacobson was a top loan officer in the bank's subprime division for nine years, closing as much as $55 million worth of loans a year. ... The idea of reaching out to churches took off quickly, Jacobson recalls. The branch managers figured pastors had a lot of influence with their parishioners and could give the loan officers credibility and new customers. Jacobson remembers a conference call where sales managers discussed the new strategy. The plan was to send officers to guest-speak at church-sponsored "wealth-building seminars" ... and dazzle the participants with the possibility of a new house. They would tell pastors that for every person who took out a mortgage, $350 would be donated to the church, or to a charity of the parishioner's choice. "They wouldn't say, 'Hey, Mr. Minister. We want to give your people a bunch of subprime loans' ... They would say, 'Your congregants will be homeowners! They will be able to live the American dream!'" ...

Demographically, the growth of the prosperity gospel tracks fairly closely to the pattern of foreclosure hot spots. Both spread in two particular kinds of communities - the exurban middle class and the urban poor. Many newer prosperity churches popped up around fringe suburban developments built in the 1990s and 2000s. ... These are precisely the kinds of neighborhoods that have been decimated by foreclosures, according to Eric Halperin, of the Center for Responsible Lending.

Lose Your Wallet, Cease to Exist

DJ — 2010-01-29T23:27:00Z

Imagine losing your wallet, along with all your identification. Replacing it has always been a pain.

Now, thanks to Real-ID, replacing your driver's license or state ID card can be literally impossible. That's because, under the new requirements, you can't get a replacement state-issued ID card without proof of your social security number-- and you can't get a social security card (or other proof of social security number) without a state-issued picture ID.

According to one State employee, just days after Utah adopted the new standards for issuing driver's licenses mandated in the Real-ID Act, Utahns were already getting screwed by the absurd overlapping of security requirements. In several cases, people whose identification had been lost or stolen have been unable to replace them. And, apparently, there's no provision for getting around it. Both agencies are bound by federal law.

And those who've lost their ID aren't the only ones in limbo: according to Deseret News, Native Americans and elderly Utahns who don't have birth certificates have also found themselves suddenly unable to renew their driver's licenses. And even those who do have the correct documentation have waited in line up to five hours to renew their licenses.

More than 20 states oppose Real_ID-- including Utah. Nevertheless, the new rules went into effect here January 1.

NH Senator Rails Against Populism

DJ — 2010-01-28T15:46:00Z

Senator Gregg (R-NH), in a tirade against "pandering populism," asks,

"Do we start disassembling Wal-Mart because they don't have unions?"

Not a bad idea. Unions or no, Wal-Mart funnels the wealth of our communities into corporate coffers, adding little as they remove much.

SL President Reelected, Opponent Under House Arrest

DJ — 2010-01-27T15:37:00Z

The New York Times reports that Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapakse easily won re-election, winning by 18 points in a vote that observers said demonstrated no signs of fraud. However, the Tamil vote was conspicuously absent, no doubt finding both candidates-- participants in last year's slaughter-- unpalatable.

Meanwhile, opposition candidate (recently-retired) Gen. Sarath Fonseka claims he is being kept under house arrest and fears for his life. Rajapakse's people claim the troops stationed outside are "for safety." Apparently they fear the General might try to stage a coup.

Guns & Crime

DJ — 2010-01-18T17:09:00Z

I've done previous posts showing that there's no statistical correlation between rates of gun ownership and rates of gun crime. But that doesn't mean there's no statistical correlation between certain types of guns and crime. A 2007 report by the University of Pennsylvania shows that there is, in fact, a very high correlation between the sale of certain guns and gun crime.

The study looked at guns recovered by police departments in the Baltimore and Washington, DC areas. By far, the most common type of gun recovered was the semiautomatic pistol-- 5,640 of them, representing 74.5% of all guns recovered. Next came revolvers, with 1,683 or 22.2% of the guns recovered. Then came assault rifles, with 205 or 2.7%. In other words, pistols represented 96.8% of guns used in crimes.

Deconstructing this further, the majority of pistols used were of medium caliber and had barrels greater than 3" but less than or equal to 4", and cost more than $150.

However, pistols which comprise 98% of those used in crimes represent only 3.3% of the total pistol sales. That means 1 pistol in 30 was eventually used in a crime. But for pistols costing under $150, though they represented a much smaller percentage of sales (6%), some 10.4%-- 1 in ten-- were eventually used in a crime. That means a cheap pistol is three times more likely to be used in a crime than an expensive pistol.

Urbanism was a major factor: 11% of guns sold in Baltimore were eventually recovered, with percentages declining through the suburbs to below 1% in rural counties. The closer a gun store was to the city, the higher the likelihood that a gun sold would be used in a crime.

The report also gives demographic breakdown, which I will report but won't even try to interpret: a gun is more likely to be used in a crime if purchased by a black (1 in 27), female (1 in 9), aged 21-29 (1 in 37).

I'm not naive enough to suggest that since cheap pistols are more often used in crimes that we should outlaw cheap pistols-- those wanting to commit crimes would just find another weapon. But this study does suggest that sales of cheap pistols warrant more scrutiny than they currently receive-- and that, once again, the focus of anti-gun advocates on so-called "assault rifles" is misdirected at best.

America as a Christian Nation

DJ — 2010-01-17T18:21:00Z

In "What if the Right was Right?" Cynthia Boaz, proponent of a secular nation, nonetheless makes a cogent argument that what passes for "Christian" politics shows little in common with Jesus.

On Taxes and GDP

DJ — 2010-01-16T17:45:00Z

It makes sense: higher taxes put a drain on the economy, causing lower GDP, right? The GOP says it, the Dems don't argue it. We accept it as fact. Taxes are a necessary evil that we must suffer despite their debilitating effect on the economy.

Earlier this week, a friend of mine challenged that assumption. He suggested that taxes provide an incentive to reinvest profits, thus boosting GDP. I took him up on his challenge-- and found that he appears to be correct.

Here's a chart of rate changes in the highest marginal tax bracket-- the tax rate paid by the wealthiest Americans-- versus nominal per-capita GDP change. Notice that when the tax rate goes up, so does GDP: 1918-1920, 1938, 1943-1945, and the early 1950s. The only exeption is 1935, during the depression, when tax rates went up and GDP went down. Likewise tax rates went down in 1921, 1929 and 1949. In two of those three instances, so did GDP.

This chart doesn't show the second half of the decade very well because changes were more subtle, so here's a closer look:

Again notice that in three of the four periods that tax rates went up, so did GDP. And in 4 out of 6 years that tax rates went down, so did GDP. Surely there are many factors besides tax rates that effect economic growth: war, inflation, and fiscal mismanagement, for example. But this also helps explain why the stock market does better (much better) under Democratic presidents than under GOP.

There is a logical explanation for this: if a factory owner faces high taxes, he or she is more likely to make plant investments and hire more people to maximize deductible expenses. Those investments have a multiplying benefit-- every person hired puts money into other businesses, rippling many times through the local and economies.

On the other hand, if the factory owner faces lower taxes, he or she is more likely to withdraw that money and put it in savings, which has little beneficial effect, or into real estate and luxury goods, both of which provide only a temporary benefit to the economy.

Let's reconsider the original assumption: that lower taxes stimulate the economy. If that's true, why has the U.S. economy gotten weaker, not stronger, since 1951 when the highest marginal tax rate was 92%? Today's highest marginal tax rate is 35%, and our economy is in tatters.

No one, including me, wants to pay higher taxes. But the numbers suggest that when the richest pay more, the economy gets stronger, and that's better for all of us.

Get Wasted, Prevent PTSD

DJ — 2010-01-15T16:29:00Z

(Morner photo.)

In 1999, I spent two days in Padaviya in the war zone of Sri Lanka. I went as a member of a team to interview refugees coming down ahead of an LTTE offensive. While there, I saw images and heard sounds of incredible suffering-- and at one point ended up behind the lines, in emotional (if not actual) fear for my own safety.

The team came back from this overwhelming experience and went straight to the beach (a 2-day drive). There, my two team members immediately began drinking beer while I, 14 years sober at the time, struggled with what I had seen.

To this day, I have nightmares.

Yesterday's Los Angeles Times (p. 1) shines some light on this experience. Researchers found that soldiers wounded at the front who were immediately given morphine were less likely to develop PTSD. A subsequent study suggests that immediate administration of opiates may reduce the chances of experiencing PTSD by 50%. Says the Times:

"[Studies] have hinted that opiates and other medications could disrupt the way the brain encodes traumatic memories, thus preventing the incidents from being recorded with too much intensity."

"Intensity"-- that's exactly the problem. For a peaceworker who is already in tune with the suffering war causes to actually see and hear it firsthand was an overwhelming experience I did not have the tools to cope with. Perhaps the moral of this story is that sober people are at higher risk when they engage in such activities because they have given up one of the primary means of handling overwhelm.

20 Million Climate Refugees in 2008

DJ — 2010-01-14T16:44:00Z

(350.org photo: Vice President of the Maldives at an underwater cabinet meeting held to call attention to that nation's likely demise if climate change is not controlled.)

The Guardian reports that 20 million people, were displaced by climate-change-related natural disasters in 2008 alone. We can expect more soon. One organization predicts that 150 million people will have to move by 2050, just 40 years from now.

Entire nations, including the Maldives, Fiji, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands, and others may disappear completely. Some 70 million Bangladeshis may need to relocate.

Where will these people go?

Reports from Haiti

DJ — 2010-01-14T02:52:00Z

Check out HaitiFeed.com for firsthand reports on what's happening there.

Perspective

DJ — 2010-01-13T16:28:00Z

Thousands died and hundreds of thousands became homeless when an earthquake hit Haiti yesterday afternoon-- the poorest nation in the western hemisphere (and the third poorest in the world) with a GDP per capita of $1,300. This compares with $8,700 per capita in its neighbor, the Dominican Republic. Haiti's average income is $270 per year.

Meanwhile, in the United States (GDP per capita $47,000, some 36 times that of Haiti), a massive light show is planned for the Los Angeles skyline this evening for the official opening of the 54-story Ritz Carlton and J. W. Marriott Tower. The light show will cost $100,000. That 's the equivalent of a full year's income for 370 Haitians.

Facts, Law, and Proposition 8

DJ — 2010-01-12T17:59:00Z

(Wiki photo.)

Opening arguments began yesterday in a suit to overturn California's Prop 8, which banned same-sex marriage. As a beliver in local politics and no longer a resident of that state, I have little invested in the outcome. But I've been fascinated by the claims made by opposing counsel.

First, let's start with the basic premise that the Bible defines marriage as "one man and one woman." Even a casual reader knows that to be false. Jacob married both Leah and Rachel (Genesis 29). King Solomon had 900 wives (1 Kings 10). And Hebrew law required that if a man died leaving a widow, the man's brother must marry her regardless of whether he was already married (Deuteronomy 25).

That said, let's look at the actual arguments of the lawyers.

1. Marriage is a basic civil right (Olson). That's stretching it a bit. Is it a civil right for two people to enter into a property contract? Maybe. But it is something that even corporations are permitted to do, and that, in essence, is what marriage means under civil law. (Any religious meanings should be irrelevant in the context of a civil court ruling.) Thus, even if not a civil right, there's plenty of precedent for it under the law.

2. Marriage has been limited to opposite sex couples since the dawn of time (Cooper). Definitely false. Polygamy prevailed in much of the world before Roman law made monogamy the standard throughout Europe and West Asia. Polygamy is still common in such exotic places as the Middle East, Polynesia, Thailand, and the Utah-Arizona border area. Opponents of gay marriage regularly overlook this fact, despite polygamy being practiced between members of the opposite sex. This might actually bolster an argument against gay marriage-- and suggests that their real agenda is not just against gay marriage, but against any non-Roman marriage.

3. Laws prohibiting racial intermarriage were based on white supremacy and not on longstanding tradition (Cooper). False. Since the dawn of time, many societies (including ours) have had rules against intermarriage and outmarriage. These were eagerly adopted by white supremacists, but to discount them now as simply the invention of modern racists is disingenuous.

Admittedly, the legal process encourages lawyers to twist the facts in their favor to obtain the maximum benefit. Truthfulness is not a requirement. Still, the blatant fabrication of history is a disappointing reminder of how corrupt our legal system has become.

The Swine Saga

DJ — 2010-01-12T16:35:00Z

(Samantha Celera photo.)

News reports indicate that the U.S. has ordered far too much swine flu vaccine, and has already received 130 million doses. But while there may be plenty of vaccine in Boston, that's not the case in rural Utah. In Cedar City, we still don't have it. I stopped in St. George but they had sold out. I finally found my vaccination in Las Vegas-- four months after it was recommended.

Fortunately, the swine flu wasn't particularly dangerous as flu viruses go. CDC estimates that 47 million cases resulted in just 10,000 deaths, compared with an estimated 36,000 annual deaths from the regular flu.

But what if it had been a more dangerous variety? In Ukraine, a new flu virus has overloaded that nation's health infrastructure. It kills people not from pneumonia, as is typical with flu deaths, but from viral distress syndrome.-- "total destruction of the lungs."

With U.S. swine flu vaccine months behind schedule, do we have any confidence that response time would be any better if the virus was more deadly? The possibility of a serious pandemic is yet one more reason to think about your preparedness.

Something is Happening in Primm

DJ — 2010-01-12T05:56:00Z

...And it isn't good.

I regularly stay in Primm, NV in my travels to and from Los Angeles. That's the home of Herbst Gaming's three hotels: Whiskey Pete's, Buffalo Bill's, and Primm Valley Resort. It's a convenient location, with reasonably priced rooms and decent food. And the service has always been better than average. Until recently.

Last month, I waited in line as two desk clerks processed over 150 people who arrived in a pair of buses. All the other desk clerks had been laid off.

Last night, I stayed there again. This time, the fire alarm kept going off for one-minute periods, every few hours, all night long. When I complained, the staff didn't seem interested,

What's happened in Primm? The properties have been taken over by a consortium of banks following Herbst Gaming's bankruptcy filing last year. The resulting cost cutting has left the properties short-staffed and unmotivated. Sadly, this is no longer a place I'd recommend.

Tax Season Cometh

DJ — 2010-01-11T18:11:00Z

As year-end accounting gives way to tax season, I haven't had the time to post as regularly as I'd like. I'm hoping for some guest posts, but meanwhile things will be a bit slow here at Asymptotic Life.