GOSL Claims Victory (Sort Of)
(AFP photo coutesy of Getty Images.)
Lt. Gen. Fonseka claims to have defeated the LTTE. Of the 7,000 - 8,000 estimated LTTE cadres at the beginning of the campaign, 9,000 have been killed and 4,000 - 5,000 remain. (That, acccording to the general, is because despite the successful campaign against them, the LTTE recruited enough new cadres to double its size. That doesn't sound like a defeated organization.)"[The war] might continue as an insurgency forever." —Lt. Gen. Srath Fonseka, commander of the Sri Lanka Army.
Even the general admits that defeating the LTTE on the battlefield will not end the war, and that the LTTE would continue to recruit support and attack civilians.
To this, one of my team members responds,
Actually, I think Gen. Fonseka's assessment isn't too far off. If he is talking about defeating the LTTE as a conventional fighting force mounting set battles with "front lines," that is certainly within the capability of Sri Lanka's overbloated military, especially with the reforms that Fonseka himself instituted about two years ago.
However, the "conventional" aspect of an insurgency is only the visible tip of an iceberg. In every conflict around the world, the governments go against the "conventional" forces against them — because its the only part of the conflict they can see.
This war in Sri Lanka is poised to get a LOT BLOODIER, precisely because LTTE may lose its conventional forces (or see them greatly diminished). An insurgency could spread mayhem throughout the entire society. Multiply the recent bus bombings by 10 or 20 to give you an example of what could happen. The only defense is to turn the entire society into an armed camp, in the name of "security". It's a pretty high cost, for Mahinda to keep his boast to the hardline element of the SL population...
To prevent two or three more decades of civilian carnage (on both sides), it is imperative that [we] move dramatically forward in our efforts to transform the society and therefore transform the conflict. If the money that is currently being poured down the rat hole of war (on both sides) was applied to the uplift of society (on all sides), SL could quickly move to a society beyond war.
One of our supporters, a university professor, adds, "The conventional method of 'fighting terrorism' through military strategies is tragically counterproductive in that it plays to the fight or flight response and revenge."
The good news is, our group seems to have regained its focus. Despite (or perhaps because of) the recent violence, peace is back on the agenda.
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