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Reflections on the journey
www.AsymptoticLife.com

A Goat is Born

Caution: We didn't sugar coat the birthing process. It's messy and painful. This video may not be for everyone.

Health Care Reform: Buy It Sight Unseen

Health care reform is back in the news.  President Obama promises Congress will pass it— and demands that we support it.  But what's in it?  No one knows, because it hasn't been written yet.

As of Friday, Obama's reform proposal was based on the ill-conceived Senate bill passed last December.  That bill looked less like reform than a giveaway to health insurance companies.  It included, among other things, the requirement that everyone obtain health insurance, and get fined at least $750 per year if they don't.  If you happen to work for a company with more than 50 employees, the company pays the fine.

It does add regional health insurance cooperatives, overseen by the fed.  That's probably a good idea, depending on how they're run.  And it exempts the lowest income Americans from the requirement to have health insurance (because we all know poor people don't get sick).  But on the whole, it forces everyone to get health insurance through existing companies, and penalizes them if they don't.  Oh, and it doesn't raise taxes on high income families.  The additional cost is borne entirely by those who can least afford it.

That's our starting point.  Obama wants the House to pass the bill unchanged.  Then the House and Senate will pass a bill of changes to the first bill.  What will the changes be?  No one knows.  It will be hammered out in the future— assuming the House and Senate can agree on anything.  If this process moves forward and the House and Senate fail to agree on changes, then we're stuck with that ugly Senate bill.  And that would be less reform than criminal.

We need health reform, but it needs to be sensible reform.  And we need to know what it is before we know whether it will help us.

Our elected representatives want you to support their reform proposal.  But they can't tell you what's in it.  That's not democracy at work.

Health Care and the Tax Code

View image detail
(Getty Images photo.)

The Health Savings Account, or HSA, was implemented in 2003 under the Bush administration.  It allows people to purchase high deductible health plans (HDHPs), which is cheaper than insurance with lower deductibles, and put aside pre-tax money in an HSA to pay for medical expenses.  

I switched to an HSA a couple of years ago, after my conventional health insurance premiums skyrocketed, reaching 58% of the median wage in my county.

The HSA has some great benefits.  For a person who needs health insurance (one with medical issues), it really does save money over conventional insurance.   Also, those of us who don't have enough itemized deductions to use Schedule A can still benefit from its tax advantages.  If your employer makes the contributions, that's an extra $3K in income you don't have to pay taxes on.

But ultimately the HSA plan is designed to fail, as I discovered last week.  It allows an individual to set aside up to $2,950 (in 2010) into an HSA.  But the HDHP deductible is $5,000.  I have found that $2,950 covers my medical expenses in a typical year.  But last week, I burned through my $5,000 deductible in a single day.  Not only isn't there enough in my HSA to pay for that, but there won't be enough even with an entire year's contributions— because the tax code doesn't allow it.  The excess has to come from my pocket, post tax and nondeductible.

It looks to me like the HSA was designed for people to get cheaper health insurance, except for those who really need health insurance.  After all, in the United States, you can only have health insurance if you don't use it.


Canada's Egg Police: Industry vs. Small Farms

In Canada, a small farmer with 99 or fewer hens can sell "ungraded" eggs at his/her gate, but nowhere else.  So a small farmer who sells eggs at the farmers market is breaking the law.   With prices for farmstead eggs skyrocketing, industrial egg producers are fighting back against what they see as an infringement on their territory.

"[Ungraded] eggs offer smaller producers a good revenue source. But this growing market for a different kind of egg is creating tension between the small farms that raise them and the egg marketing board that has helped to develop the mainstream egg industry in Canada and its large chicken farms.  This tension now is putting the future supply of this sought-after product in question as what some call the 'egg police' crack down on the grey market."

What's the risk of "ungraded" eggs? Ontario's Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs says on its site,

"Eggs that are cracked, dirty, or leaking have a higher risk of Salmonella contamination..."

Indeed.  But even graded eggs have a risk of being cracked, hence the practice of checking the eggs in a carton before buying them.  And, as recent food recalls have shown, industrial food production does not guarantee food safety.  On the other hand, proper cooking also kills any salmonella that could be present.

Here's another difference: graded eggs are required to be washed.  Ungraded eggs must be clean, but not necessarily washed, depending on state regulations.  When washing is not required, small farmers usually don't— and many consumers prefer them this way because they stay fresh longer.

This isn't going to play well in Utah.


Maple caramelized pumpkin encrusted cheese with texurized concord grapes.

There's only one catch...

Thanks, Sue!

We've reached that time of year again, when I am too swamped by tax season to think much about blogging.  Sue has graciously agreed to write a few posts.  Thanks, Sue!

Powerless over ... ?


Say 'ah.'

Thirty-one-year-old Toni Tramel was arrested Thursday for public intoxication, a misdemeanor.

But her real troubles started when she squirted a stream of breast milk into the face of the female deputy watching over her.

Just guessing that she'll conclude that her problem is breastfeeding, not drinking....

Strategic default is not a moral failing





"Strategic default" involves homeowners deciding to walk away from their homes and mortgages, not because they cannot afford to pay, but because they owe more than their homes are worth.  Read the news, and you'll see that a lot of experts and pundits believe this is unethical.

Look again.  Investors routinely "strategically" default on agreements — major pension funds ... commercial-property owners ... bond issuers ... and real estate developers ...The list goes on and on.  The very real possibility of default is why banks have — or should have had — underwriting standards and loan covenants.

First American CoreLogic has issued a study which highlights the pressures on homeowners with negative equity:

Shame, guilt and fear stop many homeowners from reneging on their mortgages.... The government and big banks actively cultivate those emotional constraints because the economic consequences of a large-scale walkaway phenomenon could be dire...

Strategic defaults have widespread repercussions. Ongoing foreclosures destabilize the housing market because the homes are sold at bargain prices. They also undermine the entire economy because banks must eat huge losses and homeowners rein in spending as their own homes lose value. Empty homes hurt neighborhoods and attract blight. And walkaways may inspire copycats - people who've seen their neighbors deliberately default feel more emboldened to do so themselves.

... Studies estimate about one-quarter of all defaults are voluntary "walkaways," also known as strategic defaults and jingle mail (for the sound the abandoned keys make in a mailbox).... 

Of all U.S. mortgage holders, about one quarter, or 11.3 million households, are underwater, according to First American CoreLogic, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. In California, 35 percent of mortgage holders are underwater. ,,,,

First American said a tipping point seems to come when homeowners have negative equity of 25 percent or more - owing $500,000 on a $400,000 house, for instance. At that point, owner-occupants default as frequently as investors. [Emphasis mine].

Mark Gimein, blogger and columnist, argues that while there are many good reasons to keep paying your mortgage to avoid the black mark of foreclosure, "the immorality of sticking the bank with a loss isn't one of them."

It's banks, not home buyers, that are in the better position to judge the real estate market and how much their collateral is really worth. The bank approves the assessment and decides how much equity a home buyer will be required to put up. All the mechanics of mortgages are designed to let a lender avoid the situation in which it is owed more on a house than it is worth. The limits on banks' ability to collect on badly underwritten mortgages places the responsibility for judging the sanity of real estate loans in the hands of lenders.

Clearly in the last few years all these mechanisms failed utterly. They failed, not because of morally bankrupt borrowers who go back on their "promises," but because bankers decided to count on a perpetually rising real estate market to absolve them of the necessity of responsible lending. Far from misusing the lending laws, borrowers who use the rights the law gives them to walk away from mortgages merely place the risks of insane lending where the law intends them to lie. What they do is not dishonest; on the contrary, a key reason we give borrowers the ability to do that is to keep bankers honest and responsible.

In periods of market insanity, this doesn't work. But don't blame the walkaways for exercising their rights. Blame the bankers who didn't worry about lending a whole lot more than they could get back in a foreclosure. The lesson of watching debtors walk away is a harsh one (not least for the taxpayers, who now effectively guarantee most mortgages), but the more bankers pay attention to it now, the better their chances of steering clear of the next bubble.


My opinion: the financial system is corrupt and broken.  Congress and the Executive branch, being extremely well-funded by the banks and investment houses, are beholden to and controlled by them.  Reasonable attempts to provide control and transparency are thwarted (for example, rejecting consumer protection via a mandated "plain vanilla" mortgage option, the suspension of mark-to-market rules, etc.)  Nothing will change until we suffer enough to force change.  I support a homeowner's legal right to strategically default, and believe it will be a mechanism of suffering and aid to change. 

Full disclosure: I am a CPA and CFE, with no financial or housing investments, and no debts.   As a career auditor, I have seen repeatedly that businessmen will cheat, steal and defraud, just because they can.  I am favor of strong regulation where there is potential for and a proven history of large-scale economic harm.
 

 

Signs of the Times





Above: a mall store closing.  Below: an entire mall on South Las Vegas Blvd. sits empty.  Despite the government's claim that the economy is improving, I have several friends unable to find work, others with their own businesses for whom business is extremely slow.  One friend has already lost his home, and another will if his mortgage renegotiation fails.

In the business world, those who are buying, are not always paying— collections are slow and defaults are up.

Hurt



I had never heard this song before, and might never have. But for some reason I am unaware of, it's become a hit on KROQ in Los Angeles. They were playing it about every hour during my recent stay in Los Angeles.

To truly appreciate the unusual nature of this exposure, KROQ trumpets some of the newest music available: young bands, and those that cater to the young. They were the only commercial station to play punk during its time; they broke New Wave before anyone else dared to. They are not the home of old-time country-rock heroes.

The song was written and originally performed by the band Nine Inch Nails. But this 2002 version of it is pure Johnny Cash. If you haven't heard it, please do.

The Economist on American Democracy

The Economist on American democracy:
"The blanket statement that America is the "most free, most democratic" country on earth strikes the serious comparativist as what it is: not an empirical fact but as an article of faith, one that needs to be accepted before a true patriot can go on to make minor, qualified criticism. [But it is not] real patriotism: a real patriot is an honest critic."
Amen.

Patti Smith Performs for LNA



Our friends at LNA Clothing had an incredible bash at Fashion Week last month, featuring my favorite musician: Patti Smith. The video quality is poor, but you can tell they're having a great time.  Nice one!

(Here's a better representation of Patti's work.

DA and the Federal Government

Debtors Anonymous is a Twelve Step program for people with money trouble.  They offer a set of characteristics to which many compulsive debtors can relate.

I decided to examine the list for characteristics that our federal government might share— and have emphasized the that seem appropriate:

The 12 Signposts on the road to becoming a compulsive debtor

  1. Being unclear about your financial situation: not knowing account balances, monthly expenses, loan interest rates, fees, fines, or contractual obligations.
  2. Frequently "borrowing" items such as books, pens, or small amounts of money from friends or others, and failing to return them.
  3. Poor savings habits: not planning for taxes, retirement or other non-recurring but predictable items, and then feeling surprised when they come due; a "live for today, don't worry about tomorrow" attitude.
  4. Compulsive shopping: being unable to pass up a "good deal"; making impulsive purchases; leaving price tags on clothes so they can be returned; not using items you've purchased.
  5. Difficulty in meeting basic financial or personal obligations, and/or an inordinate sense of accomplishment when such obligations are met.
  6. A different feeling when buying things on credit than when paying cash, a feeling of being in the club, of being accepted, of being grown-up.
  7. Living in chaos and drama around money: using one credit card to pay another; bouncing checks; always having a financial crisis to contend with.
  8. A tendency to live on the edge: living paycheck to paycheck; taking risks with health and car insurance coverage; writing checks hoping money will appear to cover them.
  9. Unwarranted inhibition and embarrassment in what should be a normal discussion of money.
  10. Overworking or underearning: working extra hours to earn money to pay creditors; using time inefficiently; taking jobs below your skill and education level.
  11. An unwillingness to care for and value yourself: living in self-imposed deprivation; denying your own basic needs in order to pay your creditors.
  12. A feeling or hope that someone will take care of you if necessary so that you won't really get into serious financial trouble, that there will always be someone you can turn to.
Does our government need a Twelve Step program?  You be the judge.

Nevada Buddhist Temple, Las Vegas

The Corporate Media

My Liberal Friend: "It amazes me how the corporate media gets orgasmic over the possibility of more money being spent in an election.  That's sort of a conflict of interest, don't you think?"

Me: "That's why I pretty much ignore the corporate media."

Happiness is a Warm...

 

 Or, how to buy an MK760.

Conspiracies

A left wing TV commentator interviewed the editor of The Nation about right wing conspiracy theories about people trying to infiltrate our government and dismantle our democracy.  

This caught my attention, interrupting a conversation with a liberal friend who was sharing (you guessed it) his conspiracy theory about who is infiltrating our government and trying to dismantle our democracy.

We may differ on who we think is doing it, but it seems we all think someone is trying to take away our democracy.  And we're probably right.

Animal Vegetable Miracle



Barbara Kingsolver reads the first chapter of her book, Animal, Vegetable, Miracle, about where our food comes from and how to make it better.

The Budget Deficit: Where Did It Go?


(Image: Wiki.)

In 2009, the U.S. federal government spent $1.4 trillion dollars it didn't have.  That's on receipts of $2.1 trillion, so they spent  67% more than they took in.  Ouch!  That's like a family earning $30,000 and spending $50,000.  Can you imagine?

Where did the money go?  The biggest expenditures were:
  • Social Security $727 billion.
  • The Department of Defense $637 billion.
  • Medicare $504 billion
  • Interest on the National Debt $383 billion.
  • The bailout $249 billion
The total of these five expenses alone is $2.5 trillion.  Receipts are only $2.1 trillion.  So these five largest items already exceed the amount we can afford.  Forget about NASA, the State Department, the White House, the Smithsonian, the DEA and FBI, veterans benefits, highway construction, unemployment, nuclear power subsidies, and research grants.  The money is already spent!

(It's worth noting that Social Security taxes bring in enough to cover retirement payments, but not disability and supplemental payments.  Still, it almost pays for itself.  Medicare taxes don't come close to covering Medicare expenses.  The rest of the expenses get paid primarily from income taxes— or from printing more money.)

What do you suppose would happen if you intentionally spent 67% more than you earned, and were unable to pay it back?  Eventually, you'd go bankrupt.  You might even get convicted of fraud and have to go to prison.

But in Washington, they call it "business as usual."

Climate Encounter #2: Save Energy, Save Money

WSJ: Lending Falls at Epic Pace

According to the Wall Street Journal today (front page, above the fold):
"U.S. banks posted last year their sharpest decline in lending since 1942..."
Remember TARP, which was supposed to get banks lending again?  Kind of makes you wonder where all the money went. doesn't it?

Tajikistan: Warming, Drying


(World Bank photo.)

Tajikistan has a median income of about $1.33.  Life is hard there, and getting harder thanks to climate changes.  Oxfam says temperature is rising, with the number of days over 104 degrees increasing.  Droughts are more severe, and glaciers— their primary source of water— have been shrinking steadily.

Tajikistan's carbon footprint is 1 ton per person year, putting it 154th out of 210 ranked nations.  It makes one of the smallest contributions to climate change, but is one of the worst affected.

In contrast, the U.S. carbon footprint is 19.1 tons per person. 

Some other major nations' footprints: Australia 18.8, Canada 17.4, Singapore 12.8, Japan and Germany tie at 9.7, the UK 8.6, France 5.8, China 4.6, and India 1.2.


Tip: Treehugger

End of Civility


(Image source.)

A recent speech by Glenn Beck called progressives a "cancer."  Janeane Garofalo called tea partiers "rednecks" and "racists."  And here are a few comments culled from liberal websites:
  •  "Conservatives like endless war. Keeps the serfs down."
  • "The problem [with conservatives] is that it’s often not that they’re willing to jump on a band wagon, but that they’re too mentally inept or lazy to think for themselves."
And from conservative websites:
  • "Why is that the left wing moonbats (but I repeat myself) fear people who are so totally fed up, they are staging a protest?"
  • "Liberalism is a mental disorder."
The rhetoric on both sides is pretty disrespectful.  Is it any wonder that each side describes the other as impossible to reason with?

A Divided Nation


(Image source.)

This map showing 2008 electoral results by county uses shades of purple to show areas that are less than 70% blue or red.  There are some mixed areas (and some exceptions), but on the whole, cities are blue and rural is red.

The 2000 Census reported that 58% of the U.S. population lived in cities of 200,000 or more— and 42% did not.

A recent poll found that 37% of Americans identify themselves as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 24% as liberal.  But by party affiliation, only 26% identified as GOP, 32% as Democrats, and a whopping 39% said the were independents.

The median household income is $50,233 in the U.S.  That means half of all American families earn more, and half earn less.  But here's an interesting correlation: one map below shows which states average above the median and which states average lower, as of 2004.  The other shows election results for 2004.  Can you guess which is which?

 
 

Who Gains from Division?

Back in 2007, I put together some observations on conflict analysis that came out of my work in Sri Lanka:
I decided to consider the polarization of the United States in that light. 

Let's start with the second observation: someone benefits.  Who could possibly benefit when the electorate is focused on fighting amongst itself?  Of course, there are politicians, over whom we've exercised very little oversight.  But there are others who benefit: extremists whose opinions would never be taken seriously except in a time of rising tensions. 
But the main beneficiaries are those who can't vote, namely, corporations. 

Let's say you were a big bank that wanted to get bigger— but there were laws in place to prevent that from happening.  You can;t start a campaign to repeal those laws because someone would notice what you were doing.  But suppose everyone was focused on other issues, like immigration, gun control, school prayer, abortion, and gay marriage.  Now you could quietly go to Congress, negotiate a deal, and no one would pay any attention.

And that's pretty much what happened.  Glass-Steagel was repealed in 1999, when presidential candidate George W. Bush was saying that hate crime laws shouldn't apply to crimes against homosexuals and going after John Kerry for being pro-abortion.  John  Kerry was promoting gun control and limitations on the death penalty.  (Remember the death penalty?  It's sort of receded into the background in recent years.)

Pundits love to fight— it gives them more attention.  And when you declare progressives to be a cancer, or tea partiers to be racist rednecks, that improves ratings and makes money.

But the big winners are corporations.  While we're bickering, they're profiting.

Guns Allowed in National Parks


Cedar Breaks National Monument

Effective today, guns will no longer be prohibited in national parks, so long as the bearer complies with the laws of the state in which the park is located.  Opponents of the change warned of rising crime rates, while supporters hailed the 2nd Amendment.  

I seriously doubt we'll see a sudden outbreak of gun battles, nor do I think the 2nd Amendment is at stake.  Here's how I see it: depending on where you are and what you're doing, it may make sense to carry a firearm for self defense— and also for emergency signaling.  A gunshot, or more to the point, three evenly spaced gunshots as a signal of distress, can be heard much farther away than a whistle.  And I know I can't run faster than a grizzly bear or a mountain lion— and I probably can't run faster than my companions, either, which puts me first in line at the buffet.  I've never had to use my firearm in the wilderness, nor have I needed my first aid kit, but I carry them both, just in case.

As some moderate commentators note, the ban made it difficult to move between state and federal lands— or even federal lands under different jurisdictions, since BLM and the Forest Service both allow firearms on the lands they manage.  

Carrying a firearm is perfectly legal in Utah, so long as it's not concealed.  And when I go up to the mountain to cut wood, I carry one just in case.  Until now, Cedar Breaks National Monument, which is managed by the Park Service, required me to stop the truck to disassemble and box my firearm for the short distance the state highway that runs through it.  (Did I comply each and every time?  Do most people?  I'll let you guess.)

The removal of the ban brings national park rules in line with the rest of federal lands.  On the whole I suspect that's a good thing.

The Ronny Horror Show

"And so you turn to the right
Get your hands on a gun
And close your mind up tight
It's a simple answer
That even you can understand...
It's so good for the wealthy.
Who can afford to stay healthy
And the underpriveleged — you won't see at all
With just a bit of a tax cut
And the end of a gun butt
Oh, everyone opposed to us will fall
We don't actually know them
We just want to control them..." —The Ronny Horror Picture Show (1980)

Prophetic!  Here's the SNL skit in all its glory.

We Americans


(Photo source.)

Let's start with a premise: most Americans are good, caring people.  They love their families.  They want their neighbors to prosper.  And they want what's best for their country as they see it. 

I know this to be true, because I have friends from across the political spectrum, and across the country.  From radicals in California to rabid conservatives in Utah, Republicans in New Hampshire, Democrats in New York, a Muslim in Oregon, a Buddhist in Nevada, Protestants, Catholics, Jews, and  Mormons— Americans are a decent people.

So, if we're decent and we all want what is best, why can't we talk to each other?  The answer, it seems, is that we've lost sight of that basic premise.  Despite what we know to be true, we no longer believe that people who believe something different are decent people.  We've come to see them as The Enemy

No one wants to admit that.  More often, they say something like, "Well, I would talk to them if they weren't so unreasonable."  Which means, of course that "they" won't see it my way.  And it happens on both Left and Right.

And here's the irony: we agree on most things.  For example:
  • Most of us believe in representative democracy.
  • Most of us believe in capitalism with some level of regulation.
  • Most of us believe that corporations have too much influence in Washington.
  • Most of us don't want other people telling us how to live.
These are basic American values.  We may argue about what level of regulation capitalism ought to have, or how representation gets apportioned, but we've got a common sense of liberty and democracy that many other countries don't share.

So how did we come to blows over the details?  How did we come to see our fellow Americans as The Enemy?  We were led to this place by leaders for whom our divisions are their gain.  While we were arguing about health care, corporations were looting the treasury— and we didn't notice!

We are being played.  And those pulling the strings don't care about health care, or guns, or abortion, or flag burning.  They care about money and power.  And while they keep us busy fighting among ourselves, they're free to grab both.

Verbal Terrorism

(Bird Eye photo.)

“It’s still morning in America.  It happens to be a kind of a head-pounding, vomiting, hangover kind of morning in America.” —Glenn Beck.
It's a great quote.  And in the same speech, Beck proclaimed,
"Progressivism is a cancer in America and it’s eating our Constitution — and it was meant to eat our Constitution.” 
Apparently, given the tirade that followed, Beck includes George W. Bush and Barack Obama in his indictment— ironic, since the two are as progressive as Genghis Khan and Adam Smith.

But Beck's real agenda is not an indictment of progressivism or even liberalism in general— it's to keep us divided.  Sure, he (along with pundits left and right) oppose the current state of government.  But if he really wanted change, he might note the common ground we share.

But that's not what Glenn Beck wants.  Behavior speaks louder than words.  What Glenn Beck's actions say he wants is to be a leader, a famous person, a household name— and you don't get that by making peace.  Instead, he's stirring up hatred between "his" constituency and "them," the others who are not part of his constituency.

That's a classic political move in the post-modern age.  If you want to take control, you have to give people someone to hate.  That hatred defines your group, and the more you stir it up, the more politically isolated the group will become.  The more isolated it is, the more it will listen to you.

Beck is performing verbal terrorism, using words to stir up hatred in the same way Al Queda or the LTTE used physical violence.  And people are buying it, just as people bought into the LTTE and Al Queda.  If history is any guide, Beck's real enemy is not liberals— his real struggle is for control of conservatives.

Don't get me wrong: Beck is not alone.  Too many on both sides see the division between left and right, urban and rural, as an opportunity to try to inflict their own views on other people.  "The Tea Partiers can't be reasoned with." "Obama and his socialism are wrecking America."  "The GOP is the problem."  I've heard all of these sentiments in the past two days, and they are all simplistic generalizations with just enough truth to grab people's attention.  They are verbal terrorism.  They energize, polarize, and divide.

We are a huge and diverse nation.  We are not going to agree on everything.  If you head into the conservative camp leading with gun control, or into the liberal camp leading with anti-socialism, you're not going to get very far.  The "other side" is going to sound a bit unreasonable.  That's putting the "duh" in division.

But we agree on a lot, probably 75% or even 90%.  And if we can agree to disagree on the rest, there's nothing we can't accomplish.

Torture OK Because of Stress

The Wall Street Journal reports that the Justice Department has cleared the two lawyers whose memos advised the Bush administration that torture would be acceptable.  Says the Journal, Justice decided discipline against the lawyers was unwarranted because "terrorist attacks placed them under extraordinary pressure.  So torture is once again justified by terrorism— or at least the resulting stress.

Sounds a lot like the "Twinky Defense" to me.

How Am I?

Impossible Hamster



Tip: Polizeros

California to Join EU

California to join the European Union?  Well, not quite.  But Harold Meyerson did whine this week ("Better to be Greece," Los Angeles Times, 2/18/2010, A17) about the Fed's failure to offer a "bailout" to California, when it looked like the EU was going to give one to Greece.  (It didn't.)

Meyerson's argument: California is more economically important to the U.S. than Greece is to the EU.  California is the most populous state and generates 13% of the U.S. GDP.  The failure of its schools, real estate markets, and social welfare systems would, says Meyerson, be disastrous to the national economy.  In fact, he calls on the Fed "assume responsibility... for important functions in every state," including education.

Let's leave aside for the moment the issue of surrendering states' rights to the fed.  California asked not for a "bailout," but for a stopgap— essentially a gift to help it balance its current budget. with little hope that future budgets will be any better balanced.  How would such a loan ever be repaid?  

Meyerson complains that "California has lost most of its major manufacturing..."  He fails to mention that the exodus has as much to do with California's policies as it does the economy.  The state's non-farm employment has stagnated since 1990, despite the boom years preceding the tech bubble.

And the budget crisis itself has been years in the making, predating the recession.  Sure, the economic downturn didn't help, but the direct cause of the crisis can be found in the state capitol in Sacramento.

The Fed has already spent far too much.  And if that spending was on on poorly-selected targets, still, the money is spent.  When will we learn that printing more money every time someone has a great idea what to spend it on is not a good idea?

Obama Pushes Nuclear Power


(Wiki photo: The Chernobyl Nuclear Plant after the 1986 disaster.)

President Obama this week announced the first loan guarantee for a new nuclear power plant.  Nuclear power forms the backbone of the President's "green" energy plan.  Not conservation, which could cut our demand for energy by 50%or more.  No, the President wants to pin our energy future on radioactivity.

There are just a few kinks to be worked out.  For example, the President acknowledges that no one knows what to do with the resulting waste, which remains deadly for 200,000 years.  (That's as long as Homo sapiens has existed on this planet; 100 times langer than when Jesus lived.)  The President announced he would pull the plug on the
widely unpopular Yucca Mountain facility in Nevada— and would "study" alternative solutions.  In other words, waste will be stored on-site at the plants for the foreseeable future.

Besides producing an ever-increasing pile of deadly waste that has nowhere to go, nuclear power is not financially viable without massive government subsidies.  The most obvious is the loan guarantee program— without which nuclear power plants could not be constructed.  Commercial banks won't finance them, and with good reason.  Cost overruns at the Seabrook, NH, plant bankrupted Public Service of New Hampshire, which accumulated over $7 billion in debt and was at the time the nation's fourth-largest bankruptcy.  Three Mile Island Unit #2 was rendered permanently unusable by a nuclear accident in 1979, only
three months after the $975 million unit became operational.  (That's $4.4 billion in 2008 dollars.)  Nuclear plants are one heck of a financial risk.

But an even greater expense borne by the federal government is insurance.  There is no insurance to cover a nuclear accident, such as that at
Three Mile Island or (God forbid) Chernobyl.  Three Mile Island direct cleanup cost $1 billion when it was halted in 1986.  The remaining cleanup was deferred until Unit #1 gets retured in 2014.  One recent study reports that deaths skyrocketed among infants and the elderly in the two years following the accident.

At Chernobyl, international coalition spent $1.2 billion just to create a permanent sarcophagas to enclose the permanenty-radioactive facility, and millions more have been spent by various agencies, including the
United Nations, to help the surrounding area recover— although some areas remain uninhabitable.  The cost of cleanup is estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars.  Another $20 million has been spent studying adverse health effects that plagued Europe after the accident, from birth defects in Belarus to an increase in Downs Syndrome in Berlin.

But even without an accident, nuclear power is expensive to clean up.  
Eight of the ten largest projects financed Obama's Economic Recovery Act provide $3.5 billion of taxpayer money for cleaning up nuclear sites.  There's nothing cheap about nuclear power— and we're footing bill.

Another statistic released just last month that is at least interesting: Pennsylvania, which has more nuclear power plants than any other state, also has an epidemic of thyroid cancer— in one county,
140% above the national average.  That suggests we might want to rethink the nuclear question.

Bayh on Congress

"I love helping our citizens make the most of their lives, but I do not love Congress." —Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), announcing he will not seek reelection.

Sri Lanka Update

In Sri Lanka, a senior diplomat says, "The Tamil people are worse off than they were when the war began."  An aid worker says, "China is fully behind this regime; Russia has committed $300 million in loans.  The country is now in the grip of an authoritarian regime."

Big Banks Spending Our Money



The Los Angeles Times today (B-4) lists the banks that spent the most on lobbying in 2009.  They fail to mention that most of these banks survived 2008 and 2009 thanks to a public bailout.  Here's the list, along with how much the same banks received in TARP funds:

 Bank Lobbying Expense TARP Funds Received 
JP Morgan Chase  $6.2 million $25 billion
Citigroup  $5.5 million $45 billion
Bank of America $3.6 million $45 billion
Apollo Management  $3.1 million None
Morgan Stanley  $2.9 million $10 billion
Wells Fargo  $2.9 million $25 billion
Goldman Sachs  $2.8 million $10 billion
Blackstone Group  $2.8 million None
 TOTAL  $29.8 million $160 billion

Apollo and Blackstone are both private equity firms.  Neither are on the list of TARP fund recipients— but both have benefited from the crisis by buying loans and real estate from distressed banks, especially Citigroup.

Isn't it good to know that, while taxpayer money was propping up irresponsible banks, there was some real economic benefit to our investment: a few hundred lobbyist jobs were created!

WSJ on Peak Oil: Bigger and Badder than the Credit Crunch

Oil Refinery by Zach K.

Global oil production peaked in the 1st Quarter of 2008, said Wall Street Journal, quoting analysts last year.  Today, WSJ warned that oil shortages may cause "massive disruption."  They reference one energy consultant who says,

"We must plan for a world in which oil prices are likely to be both higher and more volatile and where oil prices have the potential to destabilize economic, political and social activity."

There's no consensus yet on when and how much.  Indeed, in contrast with last year's announcement that the peak was behind us, this article suggests that peak oil production may not have been reached yet.  However, one peak oil specialist says that the crunch comes not when peak oil is reached, but when demand outstrips supply— and he puts that date in mid-2015, just 5 years away.  And that's after it's been pushed back by as much as two years because of the economic downturn, which reduced worldwide oil consumption.

WSJ uses this as a call for more nuke plants.  They give a nod to solar, wind, and geothermal— and nary a mention of conservation, which could cut our consumption (and therefore our energy needs) by as much as 75%.  But there's no serious money to be made from lowering consumption.

WSJ is no pack of whiny liberals, and warns that even if peak oil does not lead to collapse in five years, "Governments should be doing all in their power to encourage developments that lessen oil dependency."  Have we not yet learned that dependency on outside sources for anything is bad for national and economic security?

Apparently not, since the US still imports more than half (57%) of the oil it consumes.

Hallmark Woos Polygamists?


(Sign at a Smith's Market in Las Vegas.)

Why would someone need three Valentines Day wife cards?   Happy Valentines Day— to all my wives.  
I guess Hallmark is expanding its cultural horizons!

Which Is Better?

woman, Sarvodaya Village by calamur.
(Calamur photo: Woman in a Sri Lanka village.)

Today in Las Vegas, I met a young Sri Lankan man, who asked me which is the better place to live, Sri Lanka or the U.S.  Here is his answer:
Here [in the U.S.] you make a lot of money.  You don't have time to think of anything else.  But at the end of the month, all the money is gone.  If you lose your job, you lose everything: house, car, health insurance, family.
In Sri Lanka, they make very little money, but they still put a little aside.  In my village, we have [rice] paddy fields, jack fruit trees, chillies, fruits— we have everything.  Even with no money, we are okay.
My brother has a small house and a wife and family,  He has a small job.  I won't bring him here because he is okay where he is.
And when I turn 50, I will go back to Sri Lanka, because here I have no health insurance and no support.

Would I rather live in Sri Lanka? No way. But his answer does point out some shortcomings in our way of life. We have given up the idea of self sufficiency. As a culture, we have become dependent on large corporations for our well-being— and if they falter, we fail. We have given up most of our energy and outside interests to the quest for money— usually just the money to maintain the lifestyle we are accustomed to.  In large part, we have sacrificed happiness in favor of status and convenience.

There are exceptions, of course.  I have friends who are ranchers, farriers, and builders.  And my wife and I are slowly transitioning away from peripheral reliance on the corporate world, to a place of reliance on ourselves and our community. 

I think it's a better life.  Some people think it's unpatriotic.

Gnu London, NH


My home town of New London, NH last year adopted the gnu as its ambassador.  According to the Concord (NH) Monitor, artists decorated the gnus, which were then auctioned off in support of a new community center.  Businesses and individuals around town purchased and display the gnus.  See more of these cool creatures here.

Clean Brass



Used brass ammunition cases are generally dirty.  Before reloading, I ask my wife to wash my brass in the washing machine.  I put it in a canvas bag to keep it together...  but maybe canvas isn't what it used to be.  My wife took this photo when the washer stopped.

Washington Post: Americans Disgusted with Government

Boston Tea Party 7-4-09 by Paul Keleher.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll released today shows Americans increasingly fed up with government.  Some highlights:
  • 46% disapprove of the way President Obama is doing his job, up from 25% a year ago.  Only 40% now approve the way Obama has approached the budget deficit, down from 52% a year ago.
  • 71% disapprove of the way Congress is doing its job, up from 59% two years ago.  Only 26% approve.
  • Americans are dissatisfied with government by a wide margin (67-29).
  • While the Dems retain a slight lead in favorability over the GOP (43-37 compared with 56-30 a year ago), the number of people trusting neither party has almost doubled, from 9% to 17% over the same period.
  • 56% do not plan to vote for their incumbent Congressional representative.  But those who say they would vote for a party are evenly split (46-46), suggesting that nothing would really change.
  • 39% described themselves as Independents, with Dems/GOP split 32-26.  This compares with only 34% independents a year ago, and the Dem/GOP split 36-24.  Third party affiliations have fallen to 3% from 5% over the same period.  Thus, while the GOP has picked up 2% from third parties, the Dems have lost 4% to independents.
  • 55% have an unfavorable view on Sarah Palin.  Let that "news" story die already!
  • On the economy, 88% don't believe the recession is over, 53% say that from their own personal experience the economy has not begun to recover.
Suggesting how much damage the Bush administration did to the GOP, poll respondents described themselves as 37% conservative, 36% moderate, and 24% liberal— yet despite their overwhelming disfavor with the state of government, Americans still favor the Dems over the GOP by a fairly wide margin.

Winter

Three photos of snow-covered mountains between St. George and Cedar City, Utah.

A Platform Many May Agree On

File:Declaration-of-independence-broadside-cropped.jpg

Bob at Polizeros, a self-described radical, has in recent weeks proposed the novel idea that Left and Right have a great deal in common.  His discussion was recently joined by a tea partier, who had specific suggestions.  Which leads me to speculate about a platform that most Americans would agree on.  Here's a proposed starting point:
  1. The federal government is no longer responsive to its citizens.  Too much money and influence come from corporate interests.  Too much of our money returns to corporate interests in the form of bailouts, corporate welfare, assumption of liability, etc.  The idea that corporations have freedom of political speech, and that money is a form of speech, must be rebuffed.
  2. Too much power has accumulated at the top.  When Presidents can roll back civil rights, send our young people to die overseas without the approval of Congress, and unilaterally overrule decisions of the states, there's too much power in one place.  Our Constitution says that powers not specifically granted to the Fed are reserved to the people and the states.  The federal government cannot be eliminated, but we should examine carefully what role it needs to play.  Power should be devolved once again to its lowest possible level— to individuals, communities, and states.
  3. The federal government has been used  to wage a "culture war," attempting to remake the entire country into the image of one or another view of American culture.  We must accept that the United States is culturally varied, primarily between urban and rural areas, but regionally as well.  We share many common values, but there is no "universal" American culture and no top-down solution that all of us will embrace.
  4. There are many issues on which there are deep divisions in this country— divisions which have been exploited by politicians in order to keep us occupied with details while they solidify their power.  For the greater good, many of these differences should be set aside, or decided locally.  It serves all of us to focus on the areas on which we agree.
Specific areas in which change must occur:
  • The two-party system concentrates power in a few hands.  Replace it with a multi-party or no-party system.
  • Get corporations out of government.  Let campaigns be funded only by contributions from individuals.
  • Improve government transparency.  The process of government should be visible to all.
  • Return our civil rights.  "They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety." —Benjamin Franklin
  • Break up monopolies.  If a company is "too big to fail," it's a monopoly.
  • Demand fiscal responsibility.  Huge government debt is not just a liability for our children and grandchildren— it erodes our own wealth through inflation at an alarming rate.
  • Revamp our energy policy.  Relying on (and giving profit to) unstable and/or unfriendly states for oil with which to power our economy is both impractical and unwise.
  • Adopt the Principle of Subsidiarity:  that matters ought to be handled by the smallest, lowest or least centralized competent authority, and that a central authority should have a subsidiary function, performing only those tasks which cannot be performed effectively at a more immediate or local level.
There will be discussions about which functions a central government ought to fulfill, what energy policy is appropriate, and how much freedom a local government ought to have.  These are positive discussions as long as we don't get bogged down in knee-jerk opposition.

Some may think this platform is impossible to achieve.  Strategy is another issue entirely.  If we can agree on some basic principles toward which we ought to move, then we can look at how to reach them.

Ivanpah Dry Lake: Not so dry



Just before the I-15 crosses from California into Nevada, it passes Ivanpah Dry Lake, a large, flat lakebed popular for landsailing and other sports. 

On my last trip through, it wasn't so dry.  Here, the lights of Primm, Nevada are reflected in the lake, which filled with water after heavy rains.

Pawn Your Stuff with "The White Guy"



This sign, prominently displayed at a Mexican restuarant in St. George, Utah, invites Spanish-speaking patrons to pawn their stuff with El Gringo— literally, "the white guy."  Could it suggest exploitation any more strongly?

Sustainable Dairying, India Style


(Meanest Indian image. Note the dung patties drying on the wall.)

By necessity, India wastes very little.  The Hindu religion considers the cow to be holy because it gives life (in the form of milk) without taking life, but that doesn't mean they're overrun with cows.  One source says India has 200 million cows, or 0.18 per person.  This compares with 0.32 cattle per capita in the U.S.

Because of religious restrictions, cattle in India are raised primarily for dairy, a far more efficient use of cows than meat.  But because everything is so scarce in India, dairy production doesn't look much like it does here.  Most often, a family keeps a cow, milks it daily, and perhaps sells some of that milk (or the cheese made from it) to their neighbors.  This creates certain environmental benefits compared with industrial dairying.

Dairy cows in the U.S. are typically kept in confined areas, and fed hay and grain that is grown on dedicated cropland and trucked in from some distance.  Feed production and trucking both have an environmental cost.  Cows in India, in contrast, wander the streets and eat garbage.  Thus, India uses virtually no land area for feed production— cows eat waste food and vegetable matter that would otherwise decompose in garbage heaps, creating methane.  Yes, it creates methane in a cow's stomach, too— but they get milk as a byproduct instead of just trash.

Manure in the U.S. is typically slurried by large dairy operations, where it generates methane.  Smaller dairies are more likely to compost, which creates CO2 instead, a better environmental choice.  But in India, manure is made into cakes, typically dried is the sun, and sold as fuel.  Yes, it creates CO2 when burned— but it offsets wood or fossil fuel that would otherwise be used for heat and cooking.

Globalization is pressuring India to grow commercial livestock feed (much of which it exports to other livestock producing nations), and in some areas local production is giving way to industrialization, along with its inherent environmental costs.  But the traditional Indian approach to dairying is about as environmentally friendly as it is possible to get.  And it's low tech. 

Utah Joins State Effort to Limit Fed

US Constitution by Thorne Enterprises.

This week, the Utah Senate passed SB11, the Utah State-Made Firearms Protection Act, which exempts Utah firearm manufacturers (including Browning, one of the country's largest) from federal firearms statutes for firearms manufactured for sale in Utah.  The Bill now proceeds to the House.  Along similar lines, SB67 requires the Governor's approval before any federal health insurance legislation can be implemented in Utah.  It, too, cleared the state Senate and heads for the House.

While gun rights proponents are understandably ecstatic, SB11 closely follows a similar Montana statute passed last year, whose author says its purpose is to challenge how the federal government views states' rights— not specifically gun rights.  Firearms regulations are one logical place to start, since much federal gun regulation relies on the view that if something crosses state lines, it becomes federal purview.  This bill states that the federal rules don't apply for firearms that don't cross state lines.

According to Deseret News, the bill's author, Sen. Margaret Dayton (R-Orem), commented,

"There are … 13 bills that I know of in our Legislature that address our state's sovereign right to make decisions in our own state, … and to say to the federal government, 'What part of shall not infringe do they not understand?' "

The phrase "shall not infringe" alludes to the 10th Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, the last of the Bill of Rights, which states, 

"The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people."

Jumping in with Montana and Utah is Wyoming, where the Governor, a Democrat, called for a Constitutional Amendment to limit federal interference in state affairs.  His press release said in part,

"We must do what we can to stop this avalanche of federal intrusion.”

According to Wiki, other states, too, have moved to reassert their sovereignty.  Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and Tennessee all passed resolutions affirming their sovereignty last year, with 13 more considering it so far this year.  Others, including California, Hawaii, Maine, Nevada, Oregon, and Vermont, defied the fed on medical marijuana.  In all, nearly half the states have so far challenged federal powers in one way or another.

Deseret News opposes Utah's poke at the fed, by the way, suggesting that as long as Utah accepts federal money, it ought to play by the fed's rules.  This highlights the deep ambivalence in Utah culture toward federal authority, pitting the Utah tradition of respect for authority against the memory of the federal invasion.

I'm not sure I agree with DN, considering that fed money is actually our money.  Regardless, the Montana law is already being challenged in Federal court, and Utah's is sure to follow as this showdown develops.

Inflation: The Biggest Tax

Burning Money by purpleslog.

I've been posting about our insane federal budget deficits for years now.  So it's nice to see someone else notices them too— apart from knee-jerk party affiliated accusations, that is.  Says Deseret News today:

Hard as it may be to believe, it was only 18 months ago that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi accused President George W. Bush of having "mortgaged our future" because the federal budget deficit had reached $490 billion. That seems sort of quaint now."

The truth is, President Obama has continued his predecessor's fiscal policies, spending far more money than the government has (or can reasonably expect to collect).  Naturally both parties accuse the other of making things worse, but both parties use the same approach.  This is perhaps the most insidious fiscal policy because there is only one practical future response: inflation.

Here's an example: from 2000 to 2008, the national debt rose from $5.7 trillion to 10.0 trillion, a 75% increase.  Over the same period, the money supply also increased:  M2 went from $4.8 trillion to $7.9 trillion, an increase of 65%.  In other words, as debt goes up, more dollars go into circulation, and that means (all things being equal) every dollar is worth less than it was before.  According to the site Measuring Worth, based on current price GDP, a dollar in 2008 was worth only 69 cents of a 2000 dollar.  Every dollar you had in 2000 lost 31 cents during W's presidency— almost 1/3 of its value.

Yet Obama has embarked the same fiscal path.  Deseret News comments:

Obama spoke eloquently last week about the need to become fiscally responsible. So far, we haven't seen any actions to back up those words. His plan to freeze budgets in all but national security, Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security was a joke.

If the government continues to inflate our currency at the rate it did in the Bush years, a dollar at the end of O's presidency will be worth only 48 cents compared to what it was worth in 2000.  That's right: it will have lost more than half its value.  

Just to stay even, you would need to make twice as much money as you did in 2000.  How's that going for you so far?

I understand that there are a lot of people who think the government should do certain things, be it national health insurance or protecting our oil supply.  But what we don't seem to realize is that we pay for these services, one way or another.  We squawk about paying taxes, but do we care that we've lost 1/3 of our wealth in ten years— and that the bill will get bigger before it gets smaller?

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